MAY 31, 2010 – With about a week before the primaries, a new InsiderAdvantage/ Statehouse Report poll still has us flummoxed.

The poll, taken the night following the May 25 headline-grabbing accusations that GOP Rep. Nikki Haley had an extramarital affair with a blogger in 2007, showed voters still preferred her over three male opponents. Of the respondents who said they would vote in the Republican primary, just over 30 percent said they’d cast ballots for Haley, compared to 20 percent for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and 14 percent each for U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett and Attorney General Henry McMaster.

With South Carolina being such a “family values” state, it’s tough to explain why Haley would keep the lead. Either Republican respondents weren’t overly concerned about the allegations involving Haley or they had not had enough time on the night the poll was taken to process what the allegations of impropriety meant.

Or maybe the folks being surveyed were sick of the smarmy side of politics. Just look at how they responded when asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate accused of having an extramarital affair. Some 18 percent said they’d actually be more likely to vote for someone who had an affair – certainly a response that is counterintuitive in this conservative state.

Regardless of the truth of the allegations involving Haley, her campaign ought to worry a little because 45 percent of respondents said they wouldn’t vote for or would be less likely to vote for a candidate who faced allegations of an affair.

An old rule of politics is that perception is more important than reality. In the days ahead, if the Haley campaign can’t corral this scandal, it might end up having a lot of problems.

Other results of the poll found Democratic Sen. Vincent Sheheen of Camden leading in his party’s primary for governor. Of those who said they’d vote in the Democratic primary, 26 picked Sheheen and 17 percent tapped state Superintendent Jim Rex. Charleston Sen. Robert Ford nabbed 12 percent. Some 45 percent of voters said they didn’t know who they’d vote for or had no opinion. In other words, two weeks out, the election was wide open.

The race for lieutenant governor was an even bigger wild card. In a four-way GOP field, former Mount Pleasant Sen. Larry Richter had 16 percent. Others in the field: Florence councilman Ken Ard (13.7 percent); Orangeburg lawyer Bill Connor (11.3 percent) and Columbia businesswoman Eleanor Kitzman (5.1 percent). Some 53.6 percent of those polled had no opinion or didn’t know who they would pick on June 8.

Other highlights of the InsiderAdvantage/Statehouse Report poll:

• Wrong direction. South Carolina is headed in the wrong direction, according to 50.2 percent of respondents. One-fourth said it was heading in the right direction. Another quarter said they had no opinion. The results from the May 25 poll are dramatically different from a December InsiderAdvantage/Statehouse Report poll in which 39 percent of respondents said the state was headed in the wrong direction.

• Mine, not yours. South Carolinians tend to think their legislators do a better job than the legislature as a whole. Almost half of respondents (49.5 percent) rated state legislators as a whole as below average or failing. But only 34.4 percent said the state legislators for their district were below average or failing. Conversely, 26.8 percent graded their legislators as outstanding or good, compared to 15.4 percent of respondents who rated all legislators as outstanding or good.

If you want to see the full poll results, visit www.StatehouseReport.com.

Andy Brack, publisher of Statehouse Report and CharlestonCurrents.com, can be reached at: brack@statehousereport.com.