MAY 3, 2010 – With more than a dozen candidates running to replace grizzled and crusty U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in the First Congressional District, it seemed like a good time to try to make some sense of the election.

[Disclosure: I ran for this seat against Brown in 2000 and lost. This may give me more insight than some, but then again, I lost.]

The biggest early battle in the contest will be among Republicans who pick among nine – yes nine – candidates to be the GOP’s standard bearer. For well-known candidates, the next month will involve a lot of knuckle-biting. For the others, it’s about getting better known. Many of these are hoping to turn out enough voters to come in second and get into a June 22 runoff. (Remember, that’s what happened in 1994 when relative unknown Mark Sanford came in second in a multiple-candidate race.)

Here’s an overall impression of the GOP field: Most of them don’t tell you on their Web sites why they want to be a congressman. Instead, they roll out predictable sloganeering about lower taxes, getting the government off your back, abortion, guns and the like. They seem cardboard cutouts from the same box. Here’s a little about each candidate (in alphabetical order):

Carroll Campbell III: “Tumpy” Campbell got in the race early, which probably forced Brown to not run again. The mid-district businessman is using the record of his father, the late Gov. Carroll A. Campbell Jr., for all its worth. More than likely, Campbell peaked early and now has to contend with front-runners Tim Scott and Paul Thurmond for attention.

Ken Glasson: This Mount Pleasant Town Council member is in the financial services industry, talks about spending and debt, and wants the country to steer back onto course.

Katherine Jenerette: A Grand Strand Army vet who has been running for the seat for years says she’s the Sarah Palin of the South. But she hasn’t seemed to update her issues much as her Web site seems stuck back in 2008.

Larry Kobrovsky: Buzzwords fill the site of Kobrovsky, an attorney who is a former member of the Charleston County School Board. He’s running to end the “fiscal madness” (apparently forgetting how Republicans and Democrats caused it), term limits and ending “ObamaCare.”

Mark Lutz: A computer software businessman, political newcomer Lutz wants to “Take Back America,” a nod to Tea Party rhetoric, which is featured on his Web site.

Clark Parker: An accountant and past president of the S.C. Tax Council, Horry County -based Parker highlights fiscal discipline and limited governmen.

Tim Scott: The former Charleston County Council chair and current state representative first wanted to run for lieutenant governor and then changed his mind to run for this seat. Although one of the better known candidates in the race, his rhetoric is worn and it’s difficult to get a feel on why he wants to be in Congress, other than to add the job to a resume.

Paul Thurmond: This son of the late legendary U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond tells why he is running – “real change, not empty promises,” a slap at President Barack Obama. Unlike most other candidates, Thurmond provides a substantive site that takes multiple issues into account.

Stovall Witte: A protégé of Brown who is so loud of a critic of Obama that he is “demanding” change, it’s surprising his Web site looks as if it could have been built by Obama’s team — similar colors, fonts and more. His message is stuck on “security,” a buzzword in the 2008 campaign.

The other major political party, the Democratic Party, has two candidates: retired Air Force Reserve Col. Robert Burton and perennial candidate Ben Frasier of John’s Island. Burton, a Mount Pleasant pilot who is pushing job security (bzzz) and saving Social Security as top issues, should easily win his primary, but reportedly isn’t taking Frasier’s challenge lightly.

There also is a Green Party candidate (Robert Dobbs) and an Independence Party candidate (Jimmy Wood, a veteran who works as a government contractor).

PRIMARY PREDICTION: A June 22 GOP runoff will feature Thurmond vs. Scott, with Thurmond squeaking by in the end. Burton will win the Democratic primary on June 8.

Andy Brack is publisher of CharlestonCurrents, where this commentary first appeared.   He can be reached at publisher@charlestoncurrents.com.