MARCH 26, 2010 — You might not believe it from what you see around you, but economists say South Carolina is coming out of the recession.

“We still have a long way to go,” said Ryan Sweet at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. “The recovery is likely going to be slow and uneven, but we’re moving in the right direction.”

Frank Hefner at the College of Charleston agrees: “The optimism now is we’re no longer pessimistic. So, in other words, the bottom has been reached.”

A recent study by Moody’s Economy.com shows 22 states, including South Carolina, moving to better days.

Sweet says two factors pushed South Carolina into recovery, compared to a November report by the company that showed it on the edge of recovery:   A slight uptick in hiring and a steady increase in industrial production.

He said the state experienced hiring of about 10,000 new jobs over the last three months. Such an increase is positive because businesses generally are “very reluctant” to hire right now due to past uncertainty. For the last several months, industrial production also has increased, Sweet said.

“This is pretty much a business-led recovery,” he noted. “Consumers appear to be lagging and that’s not unexpected, given the very high unemployment rate in South Carolina.”

While unemployment may rise in the coming months, South Carolinians need to keep in mind that rising unemployment doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is getting worse.

Hefner said it’s typical in an area coming out of recession for unemployment to rise. When people stop looking for work, agencies stop counting them among the “unemployed” because they’ve taken themselves out of the job market. But when jobs become more available, those people often opt in again, which increases the labor pool more than the growth in new jobs. Hence, there is higher “unemployment” even though jobs are growing.

Hefner said a better indicator to look at to determine an economy’s health is job growth.

“You’ve got to see that job growth,” he said. “As you eventually see positive job growth, the unemployment rate will reduce and wage (growth) will follow later.”

Sweet said South Carolina’s emergence from the recession seemed to be following a typical pattern. As the economic engine begins to rev up and businesses see more demand for their products, they’ll increase production. But because many manufacturing businesses have excess capacity now – some invested during the recession to build capacity – they can rely on productivity gains for awhile before they have to hire workers.

Whatever pans out, the recovery is going to take a long time – up to two years to return to where we were before the whole mess started, Hefner said.

“This time last year,” Sweet said, “consumers were panicked. “Now that the economy is improving, not only in South Carolina but nationwide, workers are becoming a little less nervous about their jobs.”

* * * * *

IT’S SADDENING AND WORRISOME to see how some nuts around the country are so irked about the new federally-passed health care reform bill that they’re making death threats, using inappropriate slurs and hurling bricks at buildings.

U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, the South Carolina Democrat who is third in power in the House, received a faxed copy of a noose at his office.   He was on target this week when he pointed to GOP leaders to set a better example and not inflame angry taxpayers.

“These kinds of things happen when people in authority do not do what they can to tamp this down,” Clyburn told CNN late Wednesday. “We saw the other day, Sunday, [Republican] members on the floor cheering when people were up in the balcony jeering. That should not be. We’re giving aid and comfort to these people, and this stuff gets ratcheted up.”

Resorting to threats and violence in a civil democracy is not acceptable. If you’re mad with the guys in office, register to vote and get involved in the political process to kick them out – something it took far too long for congressional Republican leaders to say this week.

This article by Andy Brack first appeared in Statehouse Report.com.